The deal machine is slowing. The owned book is
not working.
The filings
of the largest consolidators tell a consistent story.
Acrisure grew revenue
from $38m to more than $4bn in about a decade. In April 2026 S&P moved its
outlook to negative after the S&P-adjusted EBITDA margin fell about 600
basis points to 21% in 2025. Well, they have started on the journey with Palantir, but still some distance to cover!
PIB Group completed a
record 31 acquisitions in 2025 and lifted revenue from £529.8m to £644.7m.
Organic revenue growth was 1% in the first half of 2025, and 1% again in the
first half of 2026.
Hub
International closed 49 acquisitions in 2025, with brokerage revenue up
10.1% to $4.75bn. Its latest private raise valued it at $29bn ahead of a
planned listing.
Steadfast transacted
A$1.4bn of GWP on its client trading platform in FY25, a minority of the
premium its network places.
The supply of deals is also thinning. OPTIS
counted 695 announced agent and broker transactions in the US and Canada in
2025, down 11.7% on 2024 and 24% below the five-year average. Acquirers priced
future cross-sell into the multiples they paid. Few have built the mechanism to
collect it.
Why the gap review never happens
The
constraint is arithmetic, not intent. A UK SME package at £1,500 premium and
20% commission earns the broker £300 a year to service, renew and advise. A
proper gap review takes two to three hours once the schedule, endorsements,
claims history and peer exposures are pulled together. At a loaded cost of £35
to £45 an hour, that is around a third of the year's income spent before the
client conversation starts.
A small US
commercial account at $8,000 and a 10% renewal commission faces the same maths.
Reviews are rationed to the largest accounts, and the long tail renews as it
was.
The cost of
that rationing is measurable. Hiscox found 74% of SMEs globally, and 77% in the
US, are underinsured. The evidence for most of those gaps already sits in
documents the broker holds.
Why brokers struggle to fix it themselves
The data is
fragmented. Acquired firms still run Applied Epic, AMS360, Acturis or
OpenGI as they were bought. There is no consolidated client view.
People are
committed, however scalability is the challenge. The handlers who know the clients run the renewals. Moving
them onto a data programme costs commission now for benefit later.
The bar for
advice is rising. Consumer Duty requires evidence that
recommendations deliver fair value. US carriers working under the NAIC model
bulletin on AI expect the same audit trail from distribution.
Internal builds are slow. Hiring data engineers, integrating each estate and governing models typically takes 15 to 18 months before the first renewal pack reaches a handler
The play: an AI-native engine, run by a
consulting-led services partner
Broker IQ is
an intelligence layer across every acquired book. The partner owns the data
work and the run. The broker's handlers own the client.
Diagnose (10
weeks, fixed fee). Ingest one acquired book as-is, score every
client for gaps and under-limits against peer cohorts, and size the prize in
the broker's own data.
Build (3 to
4 months). A Client 360 across AMS estates. AI extracts cover, limits
and exposures from schedules, endorsements, PDFs and emails, and benchmarks
each SME by trade, size and location.
Run (managed
service). A pre-renewal pack reaches the handler 60 to 90 days out: the
gap, the evidence, a premium indication and a short talk track. Pack
preparation is right-shored. The conversation stays local.
Share the
upside. Fees step down as gain-share on incremental commission steps up,
so the partner is paid for placed premium.
McKinsey estimates AI can lift agent productivity by 10 to 20%. The larger prize is commercial: every handler can advise on every renewal, not only the top decile
The business case
Illustrative
group: 80,000 SME clients and $112m annual commission. We assume 40% of clients
carry a placeable gap, conversion of presented gaps rises from 6% to 14%, each
new line earns $450 of commission, 90% of added lines renew, retention improves
by one point in each of years two and three and released handler time is valued
at $40 an hour with half redeployed.
|
Line Items |
Year 1 |
Year 2 |
Year 3 |
|
Commission from added lines |
$0.9m |
$2.2m |
$4.0m |
|
Retention gain |
$0.0m |
$1.1m |
$2.2m |
|
Incremental revenue |
$0.9m |
$3.3m |
$6.3m |
|
Organic growth added |
0.8
pts |
3.0
pts |
5.6
pts |
|
Handler time released |
$0.8m |
$1.6m |
$1.6m |
|
Net benefit, partner-led |
-$1.0m |
$3.6m |
$6.1m |
|
Net benefit, in-house build |
-$3.6m |
$0.1m |
$6.1m |
By year three the owned book adds $6.3m of
revenue a year, about 5.6 points of organic growth, from clients the group has
already paid for. Partner-led delivery reaches first value in a quarter and
returns $8.8m over three years. The in-house route returns $2.6m, because its
first year goes on integration and hiring.
The question for boards
Consolidators have spent a decade buying books on the premise of cross-sell. The firms that collect it will work on the book at every renewal and will buy the capability rather than spend two years building it. A ten-week diagnostic on one acquired book answers the question with the broker's own data.